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Starlink-L26 - L-0 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 15, 2021 22:24 - 23:25 UTC (18:24 - 19:25 ET)

Issued

Sat May 15, 2021 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant changes to today’s forecast. Cooler and drier air is in place over central Florida as a front is stalled out well to our south and high pressure builds to the north. With the high centered over the mid-Atlantic coast, a relatively strong pressure gradient will create a breezy, northeasterly flow throughout the day. There will likely be isolated showers moving off the Atlantic, but dry air in the mid-levels combined with sinking air behind the sea breeze should limit their growth to be nothing more than a flight-through constraint. Therefore, the main concerns for today’s attempt are liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For tomorrow, there will be marginally improved conditions as the high pressure slowly slides southeast. While it will still be breezy, winds will decrease slightly and remain from the northeast. Similarly to Saturday, sinking, dry air in the mid-levels will continue to limit the growth of any onshore moving showers that develop over the Atlantic. Thus, the main concerns are liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow