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Starlink-L26 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 15, 2021 22:24 - 23:25 UTC (18:24 - 19:25 ET)

Issued

Fri May 14, 2021 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Cooler and drier air has moved into central Florida as a front passed through yesterday and high pressure builds to the north. With the high centered over the mid-Atlantic coast and the front well to our south, a relatively strong pressure gradient will create a breezy, northeasterly flow on Saturday. Due to the onshore winds increasing the low level moisture, there will likely be isolated showers moving off the Atlantic, but dry air in the mid-levels combined with sinking air behind the sea breeze should limit their growth to be nothing more than a flight-through constraint. Therefore, the main concerns for Saturday’s attempt are liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For Sunday, there will be marginally improved conditions as the high pressure slowly slides southeast and remains in control. While it will still be breezy, winds will decrease slightly and shift gradually more to the east. Similarly to Saturday, sinking, dry air in the mid-levels will continue to limit the growth of any onshore moving showers that develop over the Atlantic. Thus, the main concerns will remain liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow