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Starlink-L26 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 15, 2021 22:24 - 23:25 UTC (18:24 - 19:25 ET)

Issued

Wed May 12, 2021 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A wet and stormy pattern will be in place for the next several days as a front slowly approaches central Florida from the north and stalls out over the area tomorrow. However, by Friday a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the front, helping to push the boundary well south of the Spaceport by Saturday. This will allow an area of strong high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states to take control of our weather. With the high centered well to our north and the front to our south, a relatively strong pressure gradient will create a breezy, onshore flow over the weekend. Because of this, a brief low-topped, onshore moving shower cannot be ruled out, but very dry air in the mid-levels combined with sinking air behind the sea breeze should limit their growth to be nothing more than a flight-through constraint. Therefore, the main concerns for Saturday’s attempt are liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For Sunday, we will see very similar conditions as the high pressure slowly slides southeast and remains in control. Winds will shift slightly more to the east and will remain breezy. Similarly to Saturday, sinking, dry air in the mid-levels will continue to limit the growth of any onshore moving showers that are able to develop coming off the Atlantic. Thus, the main concerns will remain liftoff winds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow